Pakistan’s GDP growth rate is projected to rebound to 2.5 percent in 2024, following a challenging year with a negative 0.5 percent growth rate in 2023.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its “World Economic Outlook 2023” report, forecasting a significant improvement in Pakistan’s economic outlook. According to the report, Pakistan’s GDP growth rate is projected to rebound to 2.5 percent in 2024, following a challenging year with a negative 0.5 percent growth rate in 2023. Additionally, inflation is expected to moderate, with a projection of 23.6 percent in 2024, down from 29.2 percent in 2023. Consumer prices are also anticipated to ease to 17.5 percent by the end of 2024.
Furthermore, the IMF forecasts improvements in other economic indicators for Pakistan. The current account balance, though negative, is projected to be at -1.8 percent for 2024, compared to -0.7 percent in 2023. Unemployment is expected to decline to 8 percent in 2024, down from 8.5 percent in 2023, indicating potential job market improvements.
Additionally, the general government net lending/borrowing is projected to improve to -7.6 percent in 2024, compared to -8.1 percent in 2023.
The report highlights examples of improved communications strategies in various countries, including Pakistan, which announced its preset monetary policy meeting calendar in advance. The IMF also mentions Brazil’s shift to a continuous inflation rate target as a positive step toward enhancing monetary policy effectiveness and reducing uncertainty.
Globally, the IMF anticipates a slowdown in economic growth from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in 2023 and 2.9 percent in 2024. This projection reflects a weaker outlook compared to the historical average of 3.8 percent. Advanced economies are expected to experience slower growth, while emerging markets and developing economies are projected to see modest declines due to challenges like China’s property sector crisis.
In terms of inflation, global rates are predicted to decrease steadily from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 6.9 percent in 2023 and 5.8 percent in 2024. However, inflation is not expected to return to target levels until 2025 in most cases.