Pakistan must pursue a more ambitious plan than the one outlined in the National Transmission & Despatch Company’s (NTDC) 10-year Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) to tap its variable renewable energy (VRE)—solar and wind power—potential to significantly increase its share in the nation’s energy mix.
Pakistan has the capacity to produce at least 33,000 megawatts of solar and wind energy, or more than 48% of the expected growth in electricity output to roughly 70,000MW in the next 10 years, according to a German research tank’s analysis of the IGCEP 2021–22.
According to a newly commissioned Agora research titled “Solar and Wind Roadmap for Pakistan,” this would lead to a 15 percent reduction in generation costs and a nearly 50 percent reduction in emissions.
For further information, see the website. According to the study’s hourly dispatch for 2030, it is possible to boost the planned total VRE capacity by adding small grid infrastructure upgrades.
“Increasing VRE to 33,000 MW by 2030, or 60 percent more than the IGCEP’s targeted 21,000 MW, provides substantial advantages and is stable under all scenarios. The yearly tender capacity of solar and wind can be flexibly altered in the future for any unforeseen change in demand or others, it says.
Additionally, it recommends pursuing a strategic upgrade of road infrastructure (including the high-voltage direct current link to Chaghai in Balochistan), concentrating on the flexibility of hydro and coal unit operation, and putting into place a strict and regional annual tender plan for auctioning off the 33,000MW of solar and wind power over the course of the NTDC plan.
According to the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority law, the NTDC must annually prepare the IGCEP, which forecasts the scenarios for the supply and demand of electricity in the nation over the following ten years and provides plans to increase power generation from various fuels to meet the rise in demand.