According to the governments estimation, an investment of about $55 billion will be required to add 32,000 to 36,000 megawatts to power generation capacity by 2031; thus fulfilling the countrys electricity needs in the national grid including Karachi.
After inclusion, the total installed capacity will be increased from the existing 41,000MW to above 65,000MW.
Sources reveal that this is based on low, medium, and high GDP growth rates of 3.4 percent, 4.3 percent, and 5.4 percent and is a component of the Indicative Generation Capacity Exemption Plan (IGCEP) for 202231, finalized by the state-run National Transmission & Despatch Company (NTDC).
The base case scenario is established on a normal scenario of the long-term prediction, present contractual obligations, and retirements of power projects, during the planning horizon of the IGCEP, according to the terms of their respective Power Purchase Agreement (PPA), except Kapco.
Meanwhile, Nepra holds a public hearing on Sept 27 to amend net metering regulations.
Almost 8,021MW of existing power generation capacity is intended for retirement during the period in all three scenarios.
Five key factors have been considered based on the governments commitments in addition to the base case scenario. These comprise high demand, low demand, Diamer Bhasha Hydropower Project in 2029, Chashma Nuclear (C-5) for energy security, local coal inclusion in 2027 and 2030, and unconstrained variable renewable energy.
The regulator, in this regard, would hold a public hearing on the subject next month.
The plan was made when the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) is holding a public hearing on Tuesday for recommended changes to the net metering regulations that will cost the solar net metering distributor generators nearly Rs10.3 per unit. The amendment is also being sought by distribution companies to change the words national average power purchase price and exchange them with national average energy purchase price.
Moreover, due to the recent rebasing of the power tariff, the per unit cost of the net metering electricity has now reached Rs19.32 per unit and the amendment in the regulations will reduce it to Rs9 per unit.