In a bid to secure favor with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the interim government of Pakistan has adjusted the claimed GDP growth rate by the previous Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government for the financial year 2022-23.
This revision sees the growth rate plummet from the initially stated 0.29% to a negative 0.17%, marking the second-lowest growth in the country over the last five decades, with the lowest recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic at -1%. Despite this, recent data indicates a positive turn, with the GDP growth rate standing at 2.13% in the first quarter of the ongoing fiscal year 2023-24, a notable improvement from the -2.7% recorded in the last quarter of FY 2022-23.
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) released these figures after the National Accounts Committee (NAC) met to review annual GDP estimates. The NAC approved the introduction of Quarterly National Accounts into the statistical system, a move aimed at meeting IMF structural benchmarks. The committee, chaired by the planning secretary, also greenlit the methodology for compiling quarterly GDP and growth rates for various industries from Q1 2016-17 to Q1 2023, using 2015-16 as the base year.
The revised GDP growth rates for the fiscal years 2021-22 and 2022-23 are 6.17% and -0.17%, respectively, differing from the initially estimated 6.10% and 0.29%. The NAC’s extraordinary step of reviewing industry-wise methodology aligns with IMF requirements, ensuring transparency in data compilation.
Agriculture displays a 5.06% growth, fueled by a substantial increase in the sowing area for key crops. The mining and quarrying industry, part of the broader industrial sector, registers positive growth. Meanwhile, the services sector, with a growth rate of 0.82%, reflects varying performances across sub-sectors, including positive trends in wholesale and retail trade, transport, and information and communication.