A broader war was predicted by analysts in response to Iran’s strikes. The attack’s military and political ramifications are yet unknown, though, since Israel is currently considering how to respond.
The massive barrage of Iranian missiles fired at Israel over the weekend transformed the long-running shadow war between the two nations into a frontal conflict, sparking concerns that the cautiously measured exchange of blows between them has given way to something riskier, more overt, and more violent.
However, Israel has not yet retaliated to the Iranian attack by Tuesday. By relaxing prohibitions on big rallies and allowing schools to reopen, the government signalled a return to relative normalcy rather than prepping the people for a battle with its archrival.
A number of right-wing Israeli officials have expressed disappointment about the absence of a fast response, claiming that Israel must act quickly and decisively to regain its deterrence. Instead, other more moderate officials have said that Israel should wait to strike and take advantage of the backing it has gained from regional players and allies who are otherwise upset about Israel’s conflict in Gaza.
President Biden, who has urged Israel to defuse the situation and whose military backing Israel would require in the case of a serious conflict, would get enraged by any strong Israeli response. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel must assess the possible advantages of retaliation against the possibility of further upsetting the president, as well as the possible costs — both human and financial — of waging two wars concurrently. Israel has already come under fire from the president for prolonging the conflict in Gaza.
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How Israel is responding to aggression by Iran
As of Tuesday, a number of options were being explored, ranging from diplomacy to an impending strike.
Analysts speculated that Israel’s response might either boost or diminish the likelihood of a regional conflict. Additionally, it might strengthen or weaken Israel’s relations with Arab countries who despise Iran yet have expressed opposition to the Gaza War.
It’s also feasible that Israel and Iran may just go back to their well-known patterns of fighting each other virtually, with Israel killing people, Iran’s proxies attacking Israel, and both sides exchanging cyberattacks.
Dana Stroul, a senior Pentagon officer who oversaw the Middle East until recently, stated, “It’s too early to tell.”
Even if the future course of events still frustratingly unclear, the last 48 hours have provided some fresh insight into the conflict.
After Israel killed seven Iranian officials in Syria earlier this month, Iran sent hundreds of self-defeating drones and missiles against Israeli land, mainly from its own turf. This was Iran’s first-ever strike against Israel.
Regarding military matters, the Iranian strikes upset Israel’s beliefs about Iran’s threshold for risk by indicating that it is prepared to take on Israel head-on rather than through regional proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Diplomatically speaking, Israel’s strong defence of the Iranian strikes in tandem with its allies in the West and the Arab world has helped divert attention from Israel’s war in Gaza, where the death toll—which Israel has vehemently denied—has reportedly reached over 33,000.
Without the several days’ notice that Iran provided before its attacks over the weekend, which gave Israel and its allies vital preparation time, analysts said it was still unknown how Israel’s defences would operate. And although Iran has threatened to respond to any future Israeli “mistake” with “considerably more severe measures,” that warning is yet unproven and left open to interpretation.
Analysts argued that the goodwill Israel has recently built up with its friends may soon evaporate should it respond to Iran in a way that would force the region into conflict.
Despite causing minimal damage and seriously injuring a single child, Iran’s officials saw the strikes as a political and international win since they gave Iran the opportunity to project a picture of resistance against Israel.
Following earlier Israeli attacks on Iranian officials, Iran’s leaders have had to deal with accusations at home that they were overly reticent. According to analysts, Iran was willing to take the risk of attacking Israel from its own soil, and the volley reassured its supporters and proxies in nations like Yemen and Lebanon. They added that it gave Iran the opportunity to confront rival Middle Eastern leaders who have frequently attacked Israel in public while maintaining a low profile with its administration.
Israel found help from unlikely quarters in foiling Iranian missile strikes
Jordan was one of the Arab nations that actively participated in thwarting the Iranian strikes, while other nations are believed to have silently supported Israel by providing intelligence or transmitting information obtained from missile-detector sensors.
With a sizable Palestinian population, Jordan, Israel’s eastern neighbour, has consistently denounced the Gaza War. However, it acknowledged that Jordanian airspace had been used to “deal with” Iranian objectives and that its military would thwart such strikes going forward.
Some specifically believe it would revitalise American-led attempts to establish diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which were on the verge of success prior to the Gaza War.
2019 saw attacks on Saudi oil refineries by the Houthis, a Yemeni group supported by Iran. In order to prevent such aggression in the future, Riyadh is looking to the United States for more security cooperation; however, the United States has signalled that such an arrangement would probably only be formed if Riyadh also publicly recognised and collaborated with Israel.
The likelihood of a compromise like this is still slim as long as the Gaza war rages on and Israel’s right-wing government rejects any talk of establishing a Palestinian state after the fighting is over, which is a crucial Saudi demand.