As the holy month of Ramadan is approaching, the rising cost of living is already weighing heavily on Pakistani households. Now, a petrol price hike of Rs 4 to Rs 4.50 per liter from March 1, 2025, is set to add even more pressure. Diesel prices may see a minor reduction of less than Rs 1 per liter, but for most people, the real concern is petrol—an essential part of daily life.
Owing to variations in global oil prices and currency exchange rates, the rate of high-speed diesel (HSD) could observe a small decline, while the cost of petrol is projected to rise on March 1. The ultimate modifications will rely on February 28, influenced by Brent crude prices and the rupee-dollar exchange ratio.
The projected hike in petrol prices is attributed to a moderate increase in international fuel rates coupled with a weaker exchange rate against the dollar. Over the past ten days, Brent crude prices have shown stability, yet minor variations have led to adjustments in local fuel costs.
This increase in petrol prices will add fuel to the fire for the people who are already suffering with high electricity bills, school fees, and daily food prices. Public transport fares will be increased after this massive petrol hike, further making transportation more expensive for workers, students, and daily wage earners. Rickshaw and taxi drivers, already encountering with declining incomes, will have to charge more or absorb the loss—neither of which is a good choice.
The cost of transporting goods will be increased especially for the shopkeepers and other business owners who are running small businesses, leading to higher prices for the daily food items such as flour, lentils, sugar, and cooking oil. Farmers, who depend on diesel for their machinery, fear an increase in agricultural costs, which could push food prices even higher just when families are trying to prepare for Ramadan.
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The official ex-depot price of petrol presently stands at Rs 256.13 per liter, while HSD is at Rs 263.95 per liter. Kerosene which is heavily used by lower-income families for cooking, is officially Rs 171 per liter but is being sold at a high rate of Rs 300-350 per liter in various areas. This makes it nearly impossible for the poor to buy the basic things for living.
The new petrol price will be Rs 260.13 if this anticipation is correct. compared to the current Rs 256.13. Kerosene and high-speed oil currently cost Rs 263.95 and Rs 171.65, respectively, per liter.
The government keeps on blaming the hike on global crude oil prices and exchange rate fluctuations, but for the average Pakistani, these explanations offer little comfort. With Ramadan being a time of increased household expenses, many are left wondering: How will we manage?
Frustration among the masses is growing fastly, citizens are demanding relief. Whether through reducing fuel taxes, providing subsidies, or stabilizing the economy, the government needs to step in before the situation becomes even more unbearable. For millions of Pakistanis, this isn’t just about petrol—it’s about survival.
Despite the absence of a General Sales Tax (GST) on petroleum products, the government imposes significant levies. Both petrol and diesel are subject to a petroleum development levy of Rs 60 per liter, which adds to the overall cost to consumers. Additionally, customs duties of around Rs 16 per liter and distribution margins of Rs 17 per liter further inflate the prices.
Luxury vehicle owners who use light diesel or high-octane petrol (95RON) are subject to even higher taxes, which reach Rs 50 per liter. These taxes have a significant impact on fiscal policies because they generate between 700,000 and 800,000 tons of revenue per month from the sale of petrol and diesel. In contrast, kerosene demand remains much lower at approximately 10,000 tonnes per month.