According to a Goldman Sachs research paper, Pakistan will be the sixth largest economy in the world by 2075 if “appropriate policies and institutions” are in place.
The paper, titled ‘The Path to 2075,’ was written by economists Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas and projected that the five largest economies by 2075 will be China, India, the United States, Indonesia, and Nigeria.
For nearly two decades, Goldman Sachs has forecasted long-term growth in countries, beginning with the BRICs and later expanding to cover 70 emerging and developed economies.
Their most recent paper includes projections for 104 countries through 2075. As per Goldman Sachs, Pakistan’s future star status is predicted to be based on its population growth, which, along with Egypt and Nigeria, could place it among the world’s largest economies in the next 50 years.
According to the research, Pakistan’s real GDP will have increased to $12.7 trillion by that time, with a GDP per capita of $27,100.
These figures, however, are expected to be less than one-third the size of China, India, and the United States. In 2075, India’s real GDP is expected to be $52.5 trillion, with a per capita GDP of $31,300.
The economists mention “environmental catastrophe” and “populist nationalism” as critical risks to their projections.
Climate change could significantly skew these projections unless a path to sustainable growth is ensured through a globally coordinated response, particularly for countries like Pakistan with vulnerable geographies.
With populist nationalists gaining power in many countries, the report warns that increased protectionism could reverse globalization, increasing income inequality across countries.
In addition, the paper added that global growth has slowed from 3.6 percent per year on average over the last decade to 3.2 percent, and the slowdown has been relatively broad-based. They forecast global growth of 2.8 percent between 2024 and 2029, with a gradual decline thereafter.